Betting Football

08/02/09

Next up for Rams is finding players

The front-office pieces are in place, with a "cap guy" (Kevin Demoff) and a pro personnel director (Mike Williams) recently hired and currently on duty at Rams Park.

As early as Monday, coach Steve Spagnuolo could announce what are believed to be the final two hires on his staff - a quality control coach on offense and a cornerbacks coach on defense.

So now it's time to find some players for a Rams franchise that has lost 27 of its last 32 contests. This past week, much of the focus shifted from putting together a staff to evaluating personnel. Williams and many of the coaches spent hours grinding away on tape of prospective free agents.

Trouble is, the Rams are a modest $14 million under the 2009 salary cap ceiling of $123 million. At first blush, $14 million seems like a decent war chest. But the Rams' rookie salary cap - the amount of money they will be allocated to sign draft picks - projects at about $6 million this year.

Much of the remaining money will be needed to re-sign pending free agents Oshiomogho Atogwe, a safety, and cornerback Ron Bartell. (All indications are that they remain top priorities for the Rams, even with the hiring of a new head coach.)

And if the Rams end up placing the franchise tag on Atogwe, that designation alone eats up $6.34 million of cap space.

So what does that leave for signing outside players once the free agency and trading period begins Feb. 27?

Not much.

Devaney, Spagnuolo and Demoff have tough decisions to make if they want to clear cap room to be active in free agency. Where will the money come from?

Currently, five Rams count at least $7.4 million each against the cap in 2009: wide receiver Torry Holt ($10.2 million), offensive tackle Orlando Pace ($9 million), quarterback Marc Bulger ($8.5 million), defensive end Leonard Little ($7.6 million) and running back Steven Jackson ($7.4 million). Combined, those five players account for $42.7 million, or nearly 35 percent of the team's 2009 cap space.

Despite his detractors, Jackson remains the team's best player. He's not going anywhere. Bulger has had two down years in a row, and it would be understandable if Spagnuolo wondered whether Bulger truly is a franchise-type quarterback. But the cap hit from trading or releasing him is prohibitive.

Regarding Little's cap count, the Rams would save only a modest $2.5 million by cutting or trading him. So it doesn't make much sense to dispatch him, particularly because he remains the team's top pass rusher when healthy.

That bring us to Holt and Pace. The Rams would free up $8 million of cap space by cutting or trading Holt by June 1. They'd save $6 million by cutting or trading Pace by June 1.

So in essence, the Rams would double their cap room - from $14 million to $28 million - by dispatching Pace and Holt. These would not be easy decisions. Pace and Holt have been to seven Pro Bowls a piece. They were mainstays of the Greatest Show on Turf squads. They have conducted themselves in exemplary fashion on and off the field in St. Louis.

But with the arrival of Spagnuolo, the franchise is two coaching tenures removed from the "glory days" of Rams football. Will the wave of change sweeping over Rams Park extend to Pace and Holt - a pair of Hall of Fame candidates?

NFL scouts, front office executives and coaches offer a variety of opinions regarding Pace. Some feel he's near the end of a great 12-year career and doesn't have much left. Others feel he's still an effective player, although not what he was a few years back.

The danger, of course, potentially comes from casting Pace, 33, aside too soon. The best recent example is left tackle Willie Roaf, who enjoyed several fine seasons with Kansas City after being tossed aside by New Orleans.

And if Pace goes, the Rams' hand would be forced. They'd have to add a starting tackle via free agency, the draft or trade.

Holt, 32, doesn't have the deep speed he once had, in part because of knee problems and in part because of advancing age. But he was misused and underutilized for much of the '08 season by a Rams staff that seemed intent on force-feeding Donnie Avery into the No. 1 receiver role.

Over the last month of the season, Holt flashed some of his old form. His production over the last four games would have translated into 76 catches for 1,080 yards over a full season.

If Holt goes, would the Rams be comfortable depending on youngsters Avery, Keenan Burton and Derek Stanley, plus disappointing veteran Drew Bennett, as their core receivers? Holt's departure might tilt the Rams strongly toward taking Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree with the No. 2 overall pick. Or trading down for Missouri's Jeremy Maclin, who's widely regarded as the next-best wide receiver in the draft behind Crabtree.

At the Senior Bowl last month, one veteran scout said the word was that the Rams were floating the names of Pace and Holt as available via trade for a third-round pick.

League sources told the Post-Dispatch that an NFL club - believed to be Tennessee - was offering a first-round pick for Holt before the trading deadline last fall. The Rams decided against making the trade, the source said.

Of course, another option to free up cap space is simply restructuring the contracts of Pace and Holt. The agents for Pace and Holt did not return phone messages left Thursday and Friday.

The trading period doesn't resume until Feb. 27. If the Rams are intent on using a trade of Pace or Holt to free up cap space for free agency, the players would have to be moved right around that time.

It would make no sense to wait until April, just before the draft, to make the trade, because by then all of the top free agents will be gone. Invariably, most of the ever-dwindling number of quality free agents are off the shelves by mid-March.

Teams can begin releasing players Monday to free up cap space. And there are cap-saving options on the roster other than Pace and Holt, although none that would free up as much money. For example, releasing strong safety Corey Chavous would save $1.2 million. Releasing linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa would free up $2.25 million.

If the Rams decide to go in another direction for a backup quarterback, releasing Trent Green would save $1.3 million. And releasing defensive tackle Claude Wroten, who was suspended for the entire '08 season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, would free up $726,000.

stltoday.com

02/02/09

Taking a backseat to the Cardinals, for once

Team A just missed a world championship by a single play, coming so close that its long-suffering fans could already start plotting out the parade route.

Team B is losing to bad teams at home, players are bickering and management is meeting into the wee hours of the night trying to figure out what's wrong with them.

Team A features a locker room full of players who are truly there for each other, competitors who played the "nobody believed in us" card all the way to the championship round.

Team B's head coach told The Arizona Republic, "I've been on teams where guys don't like each other at all. But when we stepped on the floor, I respected that guy, and I knew he had my back. Some of that's not present right now. . . . At times it looks like we're not together on the floor."

Team A's star player publicly criticized the team because he felt management lied to him during contract negotiations but even after fracturing his face did not let that affect his play on the field. His teammates love him for that.

Team B's star player has always been treated fairly by management but is allergic to putting his nose in the crowd to grab a rebound or playing help defense. It's doubtful his teammates feel quite as glowingly about him.

Team A's leader says things like, "I am so proud to be a part of this team."

Team B's leader frequently talks about his squad being in a "dark place."

Just two years ago Team A was who we thought they were and Team B was potentially a suspension away from a title, but now on the day the Cardinals came oh so close from their first Super Bowl victory the Suns never seemed so far away from their first championship.

It's kind of crazy that throughout the Cardinals' 20 years of abysmal football, the Suns have generally been the team Valley sports fan could count on, a team that has pretty much been somewhere between good and legitimate title contenders nearly every one of those years.

Now the Cardinals are the team everyone's talking about, the team all the Phoenix Bandwagoners are jumping on as Cardinals Fever envelopes the Valley the way Suns Fever has for so long.

Who would have thought even a couple months ago that the freaking Cardinals could take this city's attention away from the struggles of the Suns for a month?

It's funny how sports is. Since John Paxson sank a three-pointer that made Phoenix fans feel just as queasy as they did after Santonio Holmes' touchdown catch more than 15 years later, the Suns have fielded five teams with a legitimate chance to make a title run, and all five fell short of the NBA Finals.

Now a so-called "worst team in playoff history" reaches the Super Bowl despite a lackluster end to the regular season.

It's been a very strange year on the Arizona sports scene. University of Arizona football is up, and ASU football is down. ASU basketball is up, and Arizona is down.

And strangest of all, the Cardinals nearly win a Super Bowl as the Suns contemplate blowing up a collection of individually-talented players that has a decent shot at missing the playoffs altogether.

"We don't have a great spirit," Nash told The Arizona Republic. "We're not very positive. Right now, our sum is not as good as the parts. . . . Instead of fighting, it seems like we don't really believe what we're doing or we don't have the answers."

At some point soon the Suns need to decide if this team is wired right to take a run at things or just to start over.

That could mean a relatively minor tweak of dealing Leandro Barbosa for more of a backup point guard or a fundamental organizational shift by trading Amare or Nash.

I can't imagine the Suns unloading Nash in such an abrupt fashion after all he's meant to the franchise nor do I think it's the right move.

Amare, on the other hand, grates on fans' nerves more every passing day, leading to the question of the decade for this franchise: Do the Suns want to rebuild around Amare, or would they be better off going in another direction?

Before the season, to me the question would have been more or less what do the Suns have to do to beg Amare to take a max extension?

But Amare hasn't played like a franchise player or given the kind of effort expected of a player who could command such a contract. As individually talented as he is, unless he somehow just "gets it" one day, I don't see him being the first banana on a team that wins a title.

I don't know what it's going to take for Amare to wake up and mature into the player he should be, but how many of you who originally opposed the rumored Amare-KG deal (like I did vehemently) wouldn't take that trade in a heartbeat in hindsight?

2008-09 has been a "bad season" by the account of Steve Nash and likely anybody else in the organization, and any minute the Suns might decide this just isn't working and blow it up.

But no matter how dark things look on Planet Orange today, the Suns and their fans can take solace in one fact.

If the city doormats better known as the Arizona Cardinals can make it to a Super Bowl, is it that hard to fathom the Suns winning it all one day?

Copyright (c) 2006-2009 Fanster.com

27/01/09

Do Huge NFL Players Help Teams Win?

When the Arizona Cardinals meet the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday's Super Bowl, every starting offensive lineman will be a member of the 300-pound club.

This season, there were more than 600 players - about 20 percent of the league - in triple donuts. Even with 6-foot plus heights, their Body Mass Index (BMI) levels are all in the range of grade 2 obesity, one step below what's called morbid obesity.

This super-sizing of NFL players has accelerated in recent years, and some studies suggest health risks are growing. But studies are conflicting on this point.

And the big question on the minds of coaches and owners: Do heavier players mean more wins? No, one study found.

Strong vs. fat

The trend towards the ever-expanding football player, especially on the offensive and defensive lines, has accelerated over the last 20 years. From 1920-1984 no more than eight players in the league were over 300 pounds.

The motivation to be bigger comes from the perceived advantages on the field. When Nick Saban, now head coach at Alabama, was drafting players for the Miami Dolphins, he said: "I always say it this way: They have weight classes in boxing for a reason. The heavyweights don't fight the lightweights. What's the reason for that? Because if a big guy is just as good as a little guy, the little guy doesn't have much of a chance."

BMI is a measure of obesity based on a height to weight ratio. Often the apparently risky BMI of large athletes is dismissed because of the percentage of muscle included in their mass. The question becomes whether "big and strong" is any less dangerous than "big and fat."

Last year, Mayo Clinic researchers studied the cardiovascular health of 233 retired NFL players, aged 35-65. They found that in players less than 50 years old, 82 percent had either plaque or carotid narrowing of their arteries greater than the 75th percentile of the population, adjusted for age, sex and race. This condition could lead to a restriction of blood flow causing a heart attack or stroke.

Conflicting results emerged from a University of Texas study later in the year. They compared the health of 201 former NFL players and compared them with the population-based Dallas Heart Study and the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. Compared to the control group of men, retired players had a significantly lower prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, sedentary lifestyles and metabolic syndrome.

"Despite their large body size, retired NFL players do not have a greater prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors nor CAC than community controls," Alice Y. Chang, lead author and assistant professor of Internal Medicine at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School in Dallas. "Age and high cholesterol levels, not body size, were the most significant predictors of sub-clinical coronary atherosclerosis among retired NFL players."

Does it matter?

Jackie Buell, director of sports nutrition at Ohio State University, recently released a study focused specifically on players with metabolic syndrome. This condition is characterized by a group of symptoms that include excess fat in the abdominal area, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes and elevated levels of triglyceride. Having one or more of these symptoms increases the risk of future heart disease or attacks.

Buell's study measured these factors in 70 current college football linemen. Thirty-four players had at least three risk factors, while eight had four and one had all five risk factors.

"We understand these athletes want to be big, but they can't assume all their weight gain is lean mass just because they're lifting weights and taking protein supplements," Buell said. "The bottom line is we're seeing more and more abdominal obesity. And these findings show that athletes aren't necessarily off the hook when it comes to health risks."

Are the potential health problems worth the risk of garnering a Super Bowl ring?

Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian recently asked that very question to help his NFL draft planning. He compared the winning percentages with the average weight of NFL teams over a recent ten year period. "We found higher weight had no bearing on winning - none," Polian said. "There was a lot of noise about 'big is the answer.' We tested it. It's not valid."

(c) Imaginova Corp

19/01/09

For the Eagles in NFC Championship Game, same story with familiar ending


GLENDALE, Ariz. - The right words are so elusive on days such as this one. It does not get any easier, no matter how many times you witness the failure.

Five championship games. Four losses. Three losses as the favored team. Just the facts.

You watch the Eagles as they go about the postgame rituals. Most of the players stare blankly, mouth platitudes, get dressed and get out. They do this for a living. They learn to shake off disappointment because it is a part of the job description, even this kind of disappointment, even another loss in the NFC Championship Game.

Two time zones and nearly 2,000 miles away, though, are the loyal green millions. You wonder where they will find the strength to wake up this morning. Because this football team tortured the paying customers for the better part of 6 months this season and then it water-boarded them again yesterday for 60 minutes.

It was the exact same hell: infuriating start, furious comeback, then splat. It was maddening. It was identical. It was microcosm-by-de Sade - and that still does not begin to describe Cardinals 32, Eagles 25.

And one guy got it. You knew he would.

"I want to apologize to the fans," said Brian Dawkins, one of a handful of Eagles to play in all of these championship games. "We really thought this was it. We went out and we gave what we could but we came up short. I want to apologize to them."

Dawkins said, "They were so great on our run. It took a lot more belief than just in the locker room for us to be where we were."

The Eagles were supposed to win this game. The people in Las Vegas said so. The facts said so. It wasn't going to be as easy as their romp over Arizona on Thanksgiving night, but they were supposed to win - just as they were over Carolina following the 2003 season and Tampa Bay following the 2002 season. That was the football reality. They were better - just as they were better than 9-6-1 during the regular season.

But they came out meekly. That is the plain truth. They moved the ball but settled for field goals on offense. They didn't pressure Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, which enabled him and receiver Larry Fitzgerald to make the Eagles look impotent on defense. It was 24-6 at the half.

Meekly. Just the fact.

But then they made the obligatory comeback, and it was a sight. When Donovan McNabb hit rookie DeSean Jackson with that monstrous, deflected heave to make it 25-24 with about 10 minutes to go, it was just like that final Sunday of the regular season, when the Bucs lost and the Bears lost and the Eagles buried the Cowboys to sneak into the playoffs. It was that spectacularly improbable.

As running back Correll Buckhalter said, "After that catch, I told [teammate Brian] Westbrook, 'We're not losing this game.' But I was wrong . . . I felt like we were the better team but we didn't show it today. We fought and we were hungry, but the final result is that they're going to the Super Bowl and we're not."

Why? It was because the Cardinals methodically gutted the Eagles' defense and retook the lead on a long, wrenching drive. McNabb's detractors will say that he had one more chance with the ball and didn't come through, but this is the wrong emphasis. Again, Dawkins had the correct reply:

"We defensively did not get off the field when we were supposed to. They did their job and we did not. They drove the field. They got us points. We went ahead. Defensively, we have to get off the field but we didn't."

They have blinked so often in the bright lights that you wonder what it is they can do at this point. They have failed to play their best, again and again. As Sheldon Brown said, "It seems like a decade ago since we made it to this point. It's just tough."

There is no such thing as scar tissue. There is no such thing as getting used to these emotional depths. That much was obvious.

As Brian Dawkins said, "If you burn your hand, no matter how you burn it, it still hurts . . . It still hurts, regardless of what happened in the past."

Even if it has happened four times now, three times as the favorite.

philly.com

12/01/09

AP Source: Lions interview Schwartz for a 2nd time

DETROIT (AP) -- Tennessee Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz traveled to Michigan for a second interview with the Lions, a person familiar with his plans told The Associated Press on Monday.

The person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the talks are ongoing, said team owner William Clay Ford was expected to be present during the visit.

Detroit interviewed Schwartz after the regular season and had to wait for Tennessee to be eliminated from the playoffs to speak to him again. The Titans lost to Baltimore on Saturday.

The Lions, who fired Rod Marinelli after being the NFL's first 0-16 team, have interest in numerous candidates including Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.

Schwartz just finished his 10th season with the Titans, his eighth season as defensive coordinator. He was promoted from linebackers assistant coach to coordinator in January 2001.

Before being hired in Tennessee, he spent three years on the Baltimore Ravens' staff. He also was a college and pro scout for the Cleveland Browns and that experience might be valuable in Detroit.

The Lions have the No. 1 pick in April along with first- and third-round picks from the Dallas Cowboys and need to find players to spark a turnaround.

If Detroit hires Schwartz, he would also be counted on to come up with ways to improve a defense that ranked last in the league and gave up 517 points - threatening the NFL record for points allowed (533) in a season set by the 1981 Baltimore Colts.

The 42-year-old Schwartz played linebacker at Georgetown, where he earned a degree in economics.

He started his coaching career as a graduate assistant at Maryland in 1989, later had the same position at Minnesota and went on to become a secondary coach for North Carolina Central and linebackers coach at Colgate.

The Baltimore native became a candidate to be a head coach, though, because of what he's done in Tennessee.

The Titans ranked in the top seven in yards allowed each of the past two seasons and finished second in points allowed per game at 14.6 in 2008. His 2003 defense ranked first in the NFL in rushing defense and led the league in third down defense at 27.7 - the lowest since the 1998 Oakland Raiders.

The avid chess player analyzes football-related statistics, looking for tendencies, then has the ability to relay what he has learned to players.

"You've got to have the right kind of guys who know how to translate it off the computer to the field and play," Titans defensive end Jevon Kearse has said. "He pretty much has what it takes if you ask me."

Copyright (c) 2009 The Associated Press

05/01/09

Playoff atmosphere to invade LP Field

What an exciting week this will be for Tennessee Titan fans.
Playoffs in the NFL have a completely different atmosphere. I noticed the difference in the four wild card games played on television this past weekend. You can multiply that a couple of times at LP Field Saturday.

With Saturday afternoon's matchup with Baltimore, the Titans will be playing in their 11th playoff game, including their Super Bowl appearance in the 1999 season. They enter the game with a 5-5 postseason record, splitting a pair of games with the Ravens.

The Titans lost to Baltimore 24-10 in a 2000 AFC divisional playoff game in Nashville after the Ravens scored two fourth quarter touchdowns.

Tennessee defeated Baltimore on the road 20-17 in a AFC wild card game in the 2003 season.

The Titans are 2-1 in home playoff wins. Tennessee's other playoff wins at home include a come-from-behind victory featuring the ever-memorable "Music City Miracle" against Buffalo in the 1999 AFC wild card game and a 34-31 overtime win over Pittsburgh in the 2002 AFC playoffs.

Titan fans hope for another home playoff game Saturday but it won't come easy. Baltimore brings the NFL's second rated defense to LP Field Saturday.

The Titans barely defeated the Ravens 13-10 in Baltimore earlier this season. In that game the Ravens collected 285 yards compared to Tennessee's 210 yards of total offense. The Titans' outstanding running game was held to only 47 yards.

Baltimore held a huge advantage in time of possession, 34:28 to 25:32, and both teams had a pair of turnovers.

Speaking of turnovers, I believe that will be the difference Saturday. I expect a low scoring game with both defense dominating. Games like that are usually decided by a turnover.

This has been a very exciting year for the Titans and the AFC road to Super Bowl XLIII will come through Nashville as long as the Titans win. It's not supposed to be easy, but the Titans have as good a chance as any team.

For now, let's look forward to the first task at hand....a very good Baltimore Raven football team.

(c)2009 Shelbyville Times Gazette

29/12/08

Vikings coach Brad Childress already focusing on facing Eagles, former boss Andy Reid


Vikings coach Brad Childress didn't celebrate too much Sunday night, apparently.

Childress said he had some wine after clinching the NFC North championship with a 20-19 victory over the New York Giants at the Metrodome. But he quickly turned his focus to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Vikings' playoff opponent next week.

Childress did, however, take a little time to congratulate his former boss, Eagles coach Andy Reid, on clinching a wild-card berth in the playoffs with a 44-6 victory over Dallas. Childress, a former Eagles offensive coordinator, sent Reid a text message and received a phone call in return.

"I'm happy for him getting in," Childress said today. "Don't particularly relish playing those guys just from a personal standpoint. But he'll give it his best shot, and we'll give it our best shot."

Childress said he and Reid talked about the seasons their respective teams enjoyed, how Sunday unfolded, and generally caught up on the playoff picture.

"It's amazing how the last week played itself out," Childress said.

Childress and Reid didn't talk as much throughout this season as they did in past years because they were so focused on their own teams, Childress said.

"But we touch base," he said.

Regarding the Giants game, New York blitzed the Vikings on about 80 percent of the plays, Childress said. That's a remarkably high rate.

But that should give the Vikings a good feel for what Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson plans to do. Johnson is known for his blitz schemes, but he probably won't call Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo because both teams are in the playoffs.
"But he'll certainly be able to see some of his stuff, and I don't have any illusions about it," Childress said. "If we saw 80 percent blitz this time, we might see 90 come next Sunday."

Childress will have to prepare for it and get quarterback Tarvaris Jackson ready with plenty of film to study and a good game plan.

"That's his deal, is pressure defense, and that's the reason I know Andy hired Jim," Childress said. "There's no downside to putting pressure on the quarterback."

It might be awkward for Childress to play against the Eagles. Reid and Childress have known each other for years, dating back to their days as assistant coaches in college at Northern Arizona, long before they coached together in the NFL.

"You know, you have those games all throughout this league," Childress said. "There are so many guys that spent time coaching with each other. But you know, it's special from the standpoint that he's there and we're there. But I know how competitive he is on the racquetball court and really in everything he does. He knows how competitive I am in everything I do. You will set all that stuff aside, for that game."

Childress called upon the fans to support the Vikings in their first playoff game since 2004, saying the loud atmosphere in the Metrodome is a big advantage for his team. He called the noise "off the charts" against the Giants.

He also was a bit playful when asked to give Vikings fans some encouragement heading into the playoff game.

"Well, if they're pessimistic, then they'll be right in there with the Philly fans," Childress said. "But I think they ought to just be excited to be hosting a playoff game. There's 12 teams in this thing, there's only eight that are going to play this coming weekend, and it's great to have playoff football in this state, and it'll be great to host it in the Metrodome because that's a tough, tough, tough venue to come into."

Regarding the perceived chaos of the last 30 seconds of the Giants game, Childress reiterated that it was worth taking another shot with the offense to try to shorten the distance on Ryan Longwell's field goal. Jackson did the appropriate thing by throwing the ball away on a pass to Bobby Wade.

"You can't get a hit if you don't swing the bat, and that was kind of the philosophy right there," Childress said.

Childress also reacted to Vikings running back Adrian Peterson winning the NFL rushing title with 1,760 yards. Atlanta's Michael Turner finished second.

"It's a tremendous individual honor," Childress said. "He would be the first to tell you that those guys in the front are the guys that clear the way, and that would include tight ends, wide receivers, fullbacks. I'm sure he's proud of that individual honor, but he knows that he owes it to some other people standing in front of him, and he didn't have any illusions about that."

twincities.com